No
loud populists, no surging
far-right groups, a liberal
and migrant-welcoming Socialist Party tipped for a victory – Portugal's general
election this weekend makes the country look like Europe's odd man
out.
Across
the European Union, radical
new parties are reshaping the political landscape while Europe's socialist
parties have lost ground in recent years.
Deep differences over how to handle
surging numbers of migrants, especially, have caused friction.
However in Portugal, political
tradition is still what it used to be.
The two mainstream parties are
expected to garner the most votes in Sunday's ballot, with the centre-left
Socialist Party showing an opinion poll lead of at least 7 percentage points
over the centre-right Social Democratic Party.
poll lead of at least 7 percentage
points over the centre-right Social Democratic Party.
On
Sunday, prime minister Antonio Costa’s
Socialists are set to win, according to opinion polls, but without an outright
majority, after four years of economic growth.
This means the Socialists will most
likely seek a deal with one or several parties to stay in power.
Here are the possible post-election
scenarios:
An outright majority for Mr Costa
appears less likely now than a few weeks ago, when surveys put his centre-left
party at around 40 per cent and the opposition as much as 15 points behind. But
although his lead has halved, this scenario cannot be ruled out.
Freed from the far-left partners
with whom the Socialists have been governing, such a government would be likely
to reinforce spending controls so as to achieve budget surpluses from 2020 and
adopt tax incentives for companies, foreign investment and real estate.
New
kingmaker
A deal with the People-Animals-Nature (PAN) party is
this election's possible new scenario.
If the Socialists fall narrowly short of an overall
majority in the 230-seat house, the four or more seats that some polls give the
PAN could be enough to help the Socialists govern.
PAN
has said it is ready to support a Socialist government if it commits to some of
its environmentalist proposals.
Analysts say the budget costs of
such a deal would probably be much lower than those of other potential pacts.
Left-wing
deal 2.0
Failing the PAN option, Mr Costa may try to renew his
deal with either the Communists and the Left Bloc or both, although their
relationships have deteriorated of late, especially with the Left Bloc.
Mr Costa has ruled out a formal coalition government
but the parties are now likely to make more radical demands in exchange for
their support, such as boosting public spending significantly, taxing the
wealthy, raising layoff costs for companies and nationalising energy firms.
Minority
government, no partners
If the bill for far-left support is too high, Mr Costa
would probably seek parliament's approval for a minority government, which
would have to negotiate with other parties to pass legislation on a
case-by-case basis.
It is a risky option
that could provoke a long stalemate similar to the one currently plaguing
neighbouring Spain, which has been without a proper government for
months and is set to hold a repeat election.
Can the
opposition win?
Read
more
·
·
·
·
·
Not according to any
opinion poll or analyst. The main opposition party, the Social Democrats, are
still recovering from their worst-ever ballot box result in May's European
election, of 22 per cent.
Polling at around 30 per cent now, they are likely to
lose seats compared to 2015. Their coalition partner in the previous
government, the rightist CDS/PP, has been losing support as well.
Even if the Social Democrats were to become the
biggest party, they are highly unlikely to win an overall majority, meaning
that a new governing arrangement between the Socialists and the far-left would
still be the most likely outcome. No other alliance is considered remotely
possible.
Associated
Press/Reuters
No loud populists,
no surging far-right groups, a liberal and migrant-welcoming Socialist Party
tipped for a victory – Portugal's
general election this weekend makes the country look like Europe's odd man out.
Across the European Union, radical new parties are reshaping the political
landscape while Europe's socialist parties have lost ground in recent years.
Deep differences
over how to handle surging numbers of migrants, especially, have caused
friction.
However in
Portugal, political tradition is still what it used to be.
The two mainstream
parties are expected to garner the most votes in Sunday's ballot, with the
centre-left Socialist Party showing an opinion poll lead of at least 7
percentage points over the centre-right Social Democratic Party.
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1/50 11 October 2019
Firefighters battle
the Saddleridge fire in Sylmar, California
AP
2/50 10 October 2019
People run to take
cover after mortars fired from Syria, in Akcakale, Turkey. An Associated Press
journalist said at least two government buildings were hit by the mortars in
Sanliurfa province's border town of Akcakale and at least two people were
wounded
AP
3/50 9 October 2019
Policemen climb
over a wall close to the site of a shooting where at least two people were
killed at multiple locations in Germany, including near a synagogue in the city
of Halle
dpa/AFP/Getty
4/50 8 October 2019
This multi-exposure
picture shows USA's Simone Biles performing on the beam during the women's team
final at the Artistic Gymnastics World Championships in Stuttgart
AFP/Getty
5/50 7 October 2019
Extinction
Rebellion activists block an intersection in Melbourne, Australia
Reuters
6/50 6 October 2019
Protesters hold
smoke grenades as they gather in central Kiev to demand broader autonomy for
separatist territories, part of a plan to end a war with Russian-backed
fighters
Getty
7/50 5 October 2019
Anti-government
protesters rush to an injured man during a demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq
AP
8/50 4 October 2019
Footage of a hugely
rare polka dot zebra has been captured in Kenya. The foal was photographed in
the Maasai Mara National Reserve
Abdelrahman
Hassanein
9/50 3 October 2019
A devotee dressed
as the Hindu deity Maha Kali performs during Navratri festival celebrations in
Ajmer in Rajasthan state, India
AFP/Getty
10/50 2 October 2019
A gust of wind
lifts the cassock of Pope Francis during the weekly general audience at
St.Peter's square in the Vatican
AFP/Getty
11/50 1 October 2019
Protesters clash
with an Iraqi riot police vehicle during a demonstration against state
corruption and poor services in Baghdad
AFP/Getty
12/50 30 September 2019
A student protester
throws a burning stick at riot police officers during a clash in Jakarta,
Indonesia
AP
13/50 29 September 2019
An anti-government
protester wearing a mask depicting U.S. President Donald Trump is pushed away
by riot police during a demonstration at Causeway Bay district in Hong Kong,
China
Reuters
14/50 28 September 2019
A Japan fan smiles
before the Japan v Ireland Rugby World Cup match in Shizuoka, Japan
Reuters
15/50 27 September 2019
The Duke of Sussex
walks through a minefield in Dirico, Angola, during a visit to see the work of landmine
clearance charity the Halo Trust, on day five of the royal tour of Africa
PA
16/50 26 September 2019
A policeman stands
on a blocked road in Le Petit-Quevilly as smoke billows from a Lubrizol factory
classified SEVESO high-threshold site. Residents of twelve towns including
Rouen have been asked to stay at home after a fire broke out according to the
prefect of Normandy
AFP/Getty
17/50 25 September 2019
Participants
dressed in traditional attire pose for pictures during rehearsals for Garba, a
folk dance, in preparations for the upcoming Navratri, a festival during which
devotees worship the Hindu goddess Durga, in Ahmedabad, India
Reuters
18/50 24 September 2019
A protester fires
at riot police during university students' protest outside the Indonesian
Parliament in Jakarta
Reuters
19/50 23 September 2019
Russia's Soyuz-FG
booster rocket with the Soyuz MS-15 space ship that will carry new crew to the
International Space Station (ISS) is transported from its hangar to the launch
pad at the Russian leased Baikonur cosmodrome, Kazakhstan. The new Soyuz
mission is scheduled on 25 September with Russian cosmonaut Oleg Skripochka, US
astronaut Jessica Meir and United Arab Emirates astronaut Hazza Al Mansouri
AP
20/50 22 September 2019
An anti-government
protester sets a fire during a rally outside the Mong Kok police station in
Hong Kong
Reuters
21/50 21 September 2019
New Zealand players
perform the haka before their opening Rugby World Cup match against South
Africa in Japan. The All Blacks secured a 23-13 victory over their rivals
AFP/Getty
22/50 20 September 2019
Thousands of school
students and protesters gather in The Domain ahead of a climate strike rally in
Sydney. Millions of people around the world are taking part in protests
demanding action on climate issues. The Global Strike For Climate is being held
only days ahead of the scheduled United Nations Climate Change Summit in New
York
Getty
23/50 19 September 2019
A pedestrian walks
by an advertising installation for the Japan 2019 Rugby World Cup in Oita, on
the eve of the start of the tournament
AFP/Getty
24/50 18 September 2019
Two flamingos at
Dresden Zoo in Germany
EPA
25/50 17 September 2019
Strong wind and
waves roll in at Nordre Strandvej in Denmark
EPA
26/50 16 September 2019
A moto-taxi driver
takes two passengers past a burning barricade set up by people protesting fuel
shortages in Port-au-Prince, Haiti
AP
27/50 15 September 2019
People paddle on a
stand-up board during sunrise in a beach in Larnaca, Cyprus
Reuters
28/50 14 September 2019
Mourners hold
portraits of Zimbabwe's late President Robert Mugabe as they attend a farewell
ceremony at the National Sports Stadium in Harare. Mugabe died in Singapore on
September 6 at the age of 95. He left Zimbabwe deeply divided over his legacy
with his country still struggling with high inflation and shortages of goods
after decades of crisis
AFP/Getty
29/50 13 September 2019
Rescue workers on a
boat rescue a person stranded inside a flooded tunnel after heavy floods in
Pilar de la Horadada, Spain
Reuters
30/50 12 September 2019
Police officers try
to control the crowd after members of the public were invited to view Robert
Mugabe's body as it lies in state at the Rufaro stadium in Harare, Zimbabwe
Reuters
31/50 11 September 2019
A US flag hangs
from a steel girder, damaged in the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World
Trade Center at a memorial in Jersey City. It is the 18th anniversary of the
attacks
AP
32/50 10 September 2019
Local actors
dressed as ancient warriors re-enact a scene from the 7th century battle of
Kerbala during a ceremony marking Ashura in Iraq
Reuters
33/50 9 September 2019
A firefighter
assesses the fire spreading across land on Long Gully Road in the town of
Drake, Australia. A number of homes have been destroyed by bushfires in New
South Wales and Queensland
EPA
34/50 8 September 2019
Damaged homes after
hurricane Dorian devastated Elbow Key Island in Hope Town, Bahamas. The
hurricane hit the island chain as a category 5 storm and battered them for two
days before moving north
Getty
35/50 7 September 2019
An artist performs
on Tverskaya street during celebrations marking the 872nd anniversary of the
city of Moscow
AFP/Getty
36/50 6 September 2019
Children play
football next to a defaced portrait of Former Zimbabwean President Robert
Mugabe in Harare on the day he died, aged 95. The former leader was forced to
resign in 2017, after a 37-year rule, whose early promise was eroded by
economic turmoil, disputed elections and human rights violations, has died
AP
37/50 5 September 2019
Authorities work at
the scene of a train crash in Yokohama, south of Tokyo. According to media
reports, more than 30 people were injured after a train hit a track at a
crossing
EPA
38/50 4 September 2019
A police office
removes burning tires from the road, as protesters set up fires to block
traffic along Airport Road in Abuja, Nigeria
Reuters
39/50 3 September 2019
A riot police
officer throws a teargas canister as looters make off with goods from a store
in Germiston, east of Johannesburg, South Africa. Police had earlier fired
rubber bullets as they struggled to stop looters who targeted businesses as
unrest broke out in several spots in and around the city
AP
40/50 2 September 2019
A boat off the
island of Santa Cruz in California burns in the early hours of Monday morning.
More than 30 people were on board the boat, which is thought to have been on a
three-day diving trip
EPA
41/50 1 September 2019
Flowers are laid in
a hole in a wall as people gather in the gym of a school, the scene of the
hostage crisis, in memory of victims on the fifteenth anniversary of the
tragedy in Beslan, North Ossetia region, Russia. More than 330 people,
including 186 children, died as a result of the terrorist attack at the school
AP
42/50 31 August 2019
A man sits in front
of riot officers during the rally 'Calling One Hundred Thousands Christians
Praying for Hong Kong Sinners' in Hong Kong, China
EPA
43/50 30 August 2019
A migrant forces
his way into the Spanish territory of Ceuta. Over 150 migrants made their way
into Ceuta after storming a barbed-wire border fence with Morocco
AFP/Getty
44/50
A beagle jumps
through hoops during a show at the Pet Expo Championship 2019 in Bangkok, Thailand.
Although the four-day expo is primarily dog oriented it features a wide array
of stalls catering to pet owners' needs as well as showcasing a variety of
animals including reptiles, birds, ferrets, and rabbits
EPA
45/50 28 August 2019
Baby elephants rub
their trunks against a tree at the David Sheldrick Wildlife Trust Elephant
Orphanage in Nairobi, Kenya. Countries that are part of an international
agreement on trade in endangered species agreed on Tuesday to limit the sale of
wild elephants, delighting conservationists but dismaying some of the African
countries involved
AP
46/50 27 August 2019
Burning rubbles in
the market of Bouake, central Ivory Coast, after a fire broke overnight
AFP/Getty
47/50 26 August 2019
French President
Emmanuel Macron gestures as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, second from
left, sits between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, left, and German
Chancellor Angela Merkel as they take part in a meeting at the G7 Summit in
Biarritz, France
The Canadian Press
via AP
48/50 25 August 2019
A Brazillian Air
Force jet drops water to fight a fire in the Amazon rainforest in the state of
Rondonia, Brazil
EPA
49/50 24 August 2019
A police officer
prepares to strike a protester as clashes erupt during a pro-democracy march in
Hong Kong's Kowloon Bay
AFP/Getty
50/50 23 August 2019
Oxfam activists in
costumes depicting leaders of the G7 nations protest in Biarritz, France on the
day before the summit is due to be held there
AFP/Getty
1/50 11 October 2019
Firefighters battle
the Saddleridge fire in Sylmar, California
AP
2/50 10 October 2019
People run to take
cover after mortars fired from Syria, in Akcakale, Turkey. An Associated Press
journalist said at least two government buildings were hit by the mortars in
Sanliurfa province's border town of Akcakale and at least two people were
wounded
AP
3/50 9 October 2019
Policemen climb
over a wall close to the site of a shooting where at least two people were
killed at multiple locations in Germany, including near a synagogue in the city
of Halle
dpa/AFP/Getty
4/50 8 October 2019
This multi-exposure
picture shows USA's Simone Biles performing on the beam during the women's team
final at the Artistic Gymnastics World Championships in Stuttgart
AFP/Getty
5/50 7 October 2019
Extinction
Rebellion activists block an intersection in Melbourne, Australia
Reuters
6/50 6 October 2019
Protesters hold
smoke grenades as they gather in central Kiev to demand broader autonomy for
separatist territories, part of a plan to end a war with Russian-backed
fighters
Getty
7/50 5 October 2019
Anti-government
protesters rush to an injured man during a demonstration in Baghdad, Iraq
AP
8/50 4 October 2019
Footage of a hugely
rare polka dot zebra has been captured in Kenya. The foal was photographed in
the Maasai Mara National Reserve
Abdelrahman
Hassanein
9/50 3 October 2019
A devotee dressed
as the Hindu deity Maha Kali performs during Navratri festival celebrations in
Ajmer in Rajasthan state, India
AFP/Getty
10/50 2 October 2019
A gust of wind
lifts the cassock of Pope Francis during the weekly general audience at
St.Peter's square in the Vatican
AFP/Getty
11/50 1 October 2019
Protesters clash
with an Iraqi riot police vehicle during a demonstration against state
corruption and poor services in Baghdad
AFP/Getty
12/50 30 September 2019
A student protester
throws a burning stick at riot police officers during a clash in Jakarta,
Indonesia
AP
13/50 29 September 2019
An anti-government
protester wearing a mask depicting U.S. President Donald Trump is pushed away
by riot police during a demonstration at Causeway Bay district in Hong Kong,
China
Reuters
14/50 28 September 2019
A Japan fan smiles
before the Japan v Ireland Rugby World Cup match in Shizuoka, Japan
Reuters
15/50 27 September 2019
The Duke of Sussex
walks through a minefield in Dirico, Angola, during a visit to see the work of
landmine clearance charity the Halo Trust, on day five of the royal tour of
Africa
PA
16/50 26 September 2019
A policeman stands
on a blocked road in Le Petit-Quevilly as smoke billows from a Lubrizol factory
classified SEVESO high-threshold site. Residents of twelve towns including
Rouen have been asked to stay at home after a fire broke out according to the
prefect of Normandy
AFP/Getty
17/50 25 September 2019
Participants
dressed in traditional attire pose for pictures during rehearsals for Garba, a
folk dance, in preparations for the upcoming Navratri, a festival during which
devotees worship the Hindu goddess Durga, in Ahmedabad, India
Reuters
18/50 24 September 2019
A protester fires
at riot police during university students' protest outside the Indonesian
Parliament in Jakarta
Reuters
19/50 23 September 2019
Russia's Soyuz-FG
booster rocket with the Soyuz MS-15 space ship that will carry new crew to the
International Space Station (ISS) is transported from its hangar to the launch
pad at the Russian leased Baikonur cosmodrome, Kazakhstan. The new Soyuz
mission is scheduled on 25 September with Russian cosmonaut Oleg Skripochka, US
astronaut Jessica Meir and United Arab Emirates astronaut Hazza Al Mansouri
AP
20/50 22 September 2019
An anti-government
protester sets a fire during a rally outside the Mong Kok police station in
Hong Kong
Reuters
21/50 21 September 2019
New Zealand players
perform the haka before their opening Rugby World Cup match against South
Africa in Japan. The All Blacks secured a 23-13 victory over their rivals
AFP/Getty
22/50 20 September 2019
Thousands of school
students and protesters gather in The Domain ahead of a climate strike rally in
Sydney. Millions of people around the world are taking part in protests
demanding action on climate issues. The Global Strike For Climate is being held
only days ahead of the scheduled United Nations Climate Change Summit in New
York
Getty
23/50 19 September 2019
A pedestrian walks
by an advertising installation for the Japan 2019 Rugby World Cup in Oita, on
the eve of the start of the tournament
AFP/Getty
24/50 18 September 2019
Two flamingos at
Dresden Zoo in Germany
EPA
25/50 17 September 2019
Strong wind and
waves roll in at Nordre Strandvej in Denmark
EPA
26/50 16 September 2019
A moto-taxi driver
takes two passengers past a burning barricade set up by people protesting fuel
shortages in Port-au-Prince, Haiti
AP
27/50 15 September 2019
People paddle on a
stand-up board during sunrise in a beach in Larnaca, Cyprus
Reuters
28/50 14 September 2019
Mourners hold
portraits of Zimbabwe's late President Robert Mugabe as they attend a farewell
ceremony at the National Sports Stadium in Harare. Mugabe died in Singapore on
September 6 at the age of 95. He left Zimbabwe deeply divided over his legacy
with his country still struggling with high inflation and shortages of goods
after decades of crisis
AFP/Getty
29/50 13 September 2019
Rescue workers on a
boat rescue a person stranded inside a flooded tunnel after heavy floods in
Pilar de la Horadada, Spain
Reuters
30/50 12 September 2019
Police officers try
to control the crowd after members of the public were invited to view Robert
Mugabe's body as it lies in state at the Rufaro stadium in Harare, Zimbabwe
Reuters
31/50 11 September 2019
A US flag hangs
from a steel girder, damaged in the September 11, 2001 attacks on the World
Trade Center at a memorial in Jersey City. It is the 18th anniversary of the
attacks
AP
32/50 10 September 2019
Local actors
dressed as ancient warriors re-enact a scene from the 7th century battle of
Kerbala during a ceremony marking Ashura in Iraq
Reuters
33/50 9 September 2019
A firefighter
assesses the fire spreading across land on Long Gully Road in the town of
Drake, Australia. A number of homes have been destroyed by bushfires in New
South Wales and Queensland
EPA
34/50 8 September 2019
Damaged homes after
hurricane Dorian devastated Elbow Key Island in Hope Town, Bahamas. The
hurricane hit the island chain as a category 5 storm and battered them for two
days before moving north
Getty
35/50 7 September 2019
An artist performs
on Tverskaya street during celebrations marking the 872nd anniversary of the
city of Moscow
AFP/Getty
36/50 6 September 2019
Children play
football next to a defaced portrait of Former Zimbabwean President Robert
Mugabe in Harare on the day he died, aged 95. The former leader was forced to
resign in 2017, after a 37-year rule, whose early promise was eroded by
economic turmoil, disputed elections and human rights violations, has died
AP
37/50 5 September 2019
Authorities work at
the scene of a train crash in Yokohama, south of Tokyo. According to media
reports, more than 30 people were injured after a train hit a track at a
crossing
EPA
38/50 4 September 2019
A police office
removes burning tires from the road, as protesters set up fires to block
traffic along Airport Road in Abuja, Nigeria
Reuters
39/50 3 September 2019
A riot police
officer throws a teargas canister as looters make off with goods from a store
in Germiston, east of Johannesburg, South Africa. Police had earlier fired
rubber bullets as they struggled to stop looters who targeted businesses as
unrest broke out in several spots in and around the city
AP
40/50 2 September 2019
A boat off the
island of Santa Cruz in California burns in the early hours of Monday morning.
More than 30 people were on board the boat, which is thought to have been on a
three-day diving trip
EPA
41/50 1 September 2019
Flowers are laid in
a hole in a wall as people gather in the gym of a school, the scene of the
hostage crisis, in memory of victims on the fifteenth anniversary of the
tragedy in Beslan, North Ossetia region, Russia. More than 330 people,
including 186 children, died as a result of the terrorist attack at the school
AP
42/50 31 August 2019
A man sits in front
of riot officers during the rally 'Calling One Hundred Thousands Christians
Praying for Hong Kong Sinners' in Hong Kong, China
EPA
43/50 30 August 2019
A migrant forces
his way into the Spanish territory of Ceuta. Over 150 migrants made their way
into Ceuta after storming a barbed-wire border fence with Morocco
AFP/Getty
44/50
A beagle jumps
through hoops during a show at the Pet Expo Championship 2019 in Bangkok,
Thailand. Although the four-day expo is primarily dog oriented it features a
wide array of stalls catering to pet owners' needs as well as showcasing a
variety of animals including reptiles, birds, ferrets, and rabbits
EPA
45/50 28 August 2019
Baby elephants rub
their trunks against a tree at the David Sheldrick Wildlife Trust Elephant
Orphanage in Nairobi, Kenya. Countries that are part of an international
agreement on trade in endangered species agreed on Tuesday to limit the sale of
wild elephants, delighting conservationists but dismaying some of the African
countries involved
AP
46/50 27 August 2019
Burning rubbles in
the market of Bouake, central Ivory Coast, after a fire broke overnight
AFP/Getty
47/50 26 August 2019
French President
Emmanuel Macron gestures as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, second from
left, sits between British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, left, and German
Chancellor Angela Merkel as they take part in a meeting at the G7 Summit in
Biarritz, France
The Canadian Press
via AP
48/50 25 August 2019
A Brazillian Air
Force jet drops water to fight a fire in the Amazon rainforest in the state of
Rondonia, Brazil
EPA
49/50 24 August 2019
A police officer
prepares to strike a protester as clashes erupt during a pro-democracy march in
Hong Kong's Kowloon Bay
AFP/Getty
50/50 23 August 2019
Oxfam activists in
costumes depicting leaders of the G7 nations protest in Biarritz, France on the
day before the summit is due to be held there
AFP/Getty
On Sunday, prime
minister Antonio Costa’s
Socialists are set to win, according to opinion polls, but without an outright
majority, after four years of economic growth.
This means the
Socialists will most likely seek a deal with one or several parties to stay in
power.
Here are the
possible post-election scenarios:
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